Target and touch totals are important, but not as important as the market share. “Targets” is mostly a receiver stat (although there are some notable early exceptions). Touches are the currency of the running back.
What we’re doing is really simple. For pass-catchers, market share is targets divided by team pass attempts. For running backs, it is touches divided by team plays from scrimmage (not team touches, to be clear).
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Snap counts and depth of target and type of touch (running back receptions are way more valuable than RB carries) are also important but generally will not be discussed here. This is pure market share. Consider this a primary tool for assessing waivers and trades.
Here’s the list. Be sure to select the current week but all the weeks of the season will be archived so you can get a multi-week sample on a player if you so desire. Also note as the season progresses that I gave great thought in doing these stats weekly and not for the season. The objective here is to respond quickly to present trends. Yearly stats just smoothes everything out to a more meaningless middle. Remember, as our Gene McCaffrey so wisely says, “To be very right, you have to be willing to be very wrong.”
Touches
There’s not much actionable on the waiver wire.
Roschon Johnson, who I speculated on last week, is playable at 22.1% (27th). He’d be the top pickup for this week only if the Bears played, but they do not.
Royce Freeman leads the NFL in success rate and you could play him at 19.7% even though it’s not likely to include passing game or goal-line work. He should be added more as speculation if Kyren Williams gets hurt again, in which case Freeman is extremely valuable.
Jeff Wilson was over 20% and looked pretty good against the Jets. We need to know the status of De’Von Achane, who reportedly is expected to play.
Samaje Perine has been heavily added early in the week but he’s also under 15% and Javonte Williams is commanding the targets.
Latavius Murray is playable at 40th because he would get a goal-line touchdown if one is in the offing for Buffalo (the Bills are off this week too, along with the Ravens, Bears, Vikings, Raiders and Giants).
D’Ernest Johnson received an 11.8% market share and some passing game work, but that’s frankly an unplayable number. He’s speculation for the fantasy postseason, dependent on a Travis Etienne injury.
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As for backs who are seeing a spike in value, there’s Rhamondre Stevenson (second), even with Ezekiel Elliott getting some work. Tony Pollard was third and could be a factor in our postseason.
While Isiah Pacheco lost some high leverage touches, he was still the only RB on the Chiefs who charted (seventh).
Jaylen Warren still out-touched Najee Harris 23.5% to 22%. They’re going to be neck and neck, but the RBs are the focal point of Pittsburgh’s offense.
Targets
Okay I got a little ahead of myself with Justin Watson. The theory of the case was that nobody was stepping up, Watson got market share and even though he didn’t do much with it, he was the leader to be the No. 1 WR with Patrick Mahomes as his QB. Watson had snaps and scored a TD but was clearly supplanted by Rashee Rice as the No. 1 WR versus the Raiders (10th overall at 29.4%). Unlike Watson, Rice cashed those targets, too, at an elite level. So he’s the favorite now. Like I said with Watson, there’s no guarantees, but we bet on the possibility in this game, not the fact. Facts reveal themselves too late to be actionable.
Pat Freiermuth is mostly available on waivers and was No. 5 overall, so that’s an automatic add for a tight end (he’s gone in about half the leagues though). If you get beaten to the punch, I think Juwan Johnson is a solid bet to move from 18.4% to 25% at least given all the injuries to Saints WRs — remember, Johnson was a WR in college.
We basically have a two-man passing game in Indianapolis with Josh Downs and Michael Pittman both in the Top 10, which is very unusual for one team — and I think that’s more predictive than descriptive.
Deebo Samuel was 12th, but maybe that was just to make him happy? The 49ers are so diverse and explosive they can do what they want, but Brandon Aiyuk didn’t chart and I can’t see that being something we should expect. That was needed for Samuel to assert himself to this degree.
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Bijan Robinson had a bevy of targets and that’s great. In touches, he was 12th, but maybe you can get him into the Top 10 if you can expect 15% of targets, even without the goal-line. You must have one of those things to be a RB1 in PPR, no exceptions.
Javonte Williams was also Top 20 in targets, but the pie is so small for Denver in the passing game. You’d sign for even 200 passing yards. The overarching principle of this column is that pass attempts should be expected to regress to league average. I think Denver is a rare exception to this rule.
I think Jaylen Waddle needs to be bunched with Tyreek Hill — like the Colts receivers — for Waddle to have the rest-of-season value the market seems to expect.
Since the OC change, the Bills have changed their passing game to be much more diversified, which is great for Josh Allen but bad for Stefon Diggs (though probably good for Gabe Davis, 34th with one target more than Diggs). The Bills had a league-high six receivers chart with at least five targets. Now, they had 51 attempts, which is crazy. But still, Allen is gravitating toward the open receiver and often away from Diggs.
Ja’Marr Chase was 35th and has a QB now who likely lacks the confidence to make contested throws. His targets are generally lower quality, too. Just a massive downgrade without Joe Burrow.
Similar to Juwan Johnson, expect Alvin Kamara to command at least 20% of targets given the Saints WR injuries.
(Photo of Josh Downs, Michael Pittman: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports)
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